Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai faces a new era with the legislature in the balance. Neither of the heavyweight parties gained an absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan, handing the TPP swing votes for the first time. Passing bills will be much tougher for new leader Lai, analysts say.
In the recent presidential race, William Lai Ching-te, representing the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), successfully defended his position against contenders from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Lai secured victory with 5.59 million votes, comprising just over 40 percent of the total. However, the DPP faced a setback in the Legislative Yuan, losing its majority and retaining only 51 seats, down from its previous 61, while the KMT gained 14 seats, reaching a total of 52 lawmakers.
“This presents a completely new scenario,” commented Ku Chung-hwa, a national policy adviser to President Tsai Ing-wen, during a post-election forum in Taipei on Sunday morning. He pointed out the unique situation where, despite winning the presidential election, the DPP now finds itself in a minority position both in popular votes and in the legislature. This observation was made at an event hosted by Citizen Congress Watch, an independent watchdog.
During a post-election press conference, Lai expressed his commitment to maintaining an open-minded approach in governance and emphasized the importance of building consensus in a legislature that is currently divided.
With the KMT failing to secure a majority in the legislature, it is anticipated that they will need the support of the TPP to form a coalition majority. Sara Newland, an assistant professor in government at Smith College and a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, pointed out that if the KMT adopts a rigid stance and opposes the Lai administration on all fronts, they might struggle to sustain the coalition. Newland also noted that the TPP’s policy positions are not firmly established, making it possible for them to collaborate with either the DPP or the KMT on various issues. Given their criticisms of the major parties’ effectiveness, she suggested that it would not be in the TPP’s interest to be part of a coalition that obstructs the legislative process, as it would appear hypocritical.
As for China-Taiwan relations, the Ministry of State Security has accused Taiwan of pushing election interference rumors and pledged to carry out counter-subversion and anti-espionage campaigns targeting the island. They also claim that the victory of independence-leaning presidential candidate William Lai in Taiwan cannot stop the trend of reunification.
“Lai avoided using provocative pro-independence language throughout the campaign, and our primary expectation is that his administration will maintain continuity with Tsai. Tsai leveraged anti-mainland sentiment without resorting to overt provocations,” noted Gabriel Wildau, Teneo’s managing director specializing in political risk in China, in a communication to a client.
The ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan have been driven by differences over the island’s status. Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has pledged to “unify” it with the mainland — by force if necessary. The US decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 was a turning point in the conflict.
The China-Taiwan issue has escalated to a war-like situation after the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. The differences over Taiwan’s status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland. Now Taiwan has the potential to be a flashpoint in US-China relations.
Since the 1990s, Taiwanese leaders have pragmatically accepted that mainland China is governed by the PRC, but Taiwan’s Constitution still formally claims all of China. Taiwan has also increasingly seen itself as a de facto independent country, separate from the mainland.
According to a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, the core issue is that Beijing is attempting to “demolish the symbol of sovereignty in Taiwan”
